Alumina supply tight logic is expected to continue until October
Since entering August, alumina prices have once again surged, rising rapidly from around 3,600 yuan per ton to over 4,000 yuan per ton, drawing significant market attention. We previously mentioned that issues with supply at the mining end have not been resolved and will continue to provide strong support for alumina prices in the near future and over the coming period. The fundamentals for alumina are expected to remain robust until October. If additional disruptions to domestic ore production occur during this period, or if foreign ore supplies face significant interference (due to geopolitical factors, natural disasters, transportation issues, etc.), bullish market sentiment could reignite. However, given the currently unfavorable overseas macroeconomic environment, even with unresolved mining supply issues, price increases may be somewhat restrained, and we expect prices are unlikely to surpass the year's peak.
